Well, meet Twitter. To date, there are no ads, no charges, and no premium level accounts for this widely popular, free social media staple. If there is one thing I have learned in life, nothing stays free for long.

Twitter started during a brainstorm meeting in 2006 at a podcasting company called Odeo. In less than a year, it was being used at South by Southwest festival and the rest is history. To date, Twitter subscribers have used it to fuel revolutions, inform others of major events in real-time, and most recently assist relief efforts during the Haiti earthquake. But Twitter’s business model was late being born and as far as anyone can tell, its income simply involves investment funds from venture capitalists.

Did you hear that? Venture capitalists.

Venture capitalists, by definition, don’t venture into anything unless they know they will capitalize down the road. The only conclusion can be that the brass behind Twitter plans to sell out, as any smart person would.

So we know from reasonable deduction, that Twitter will soon have to make its money from somewhere. Where will this income come from? Here are a few ideas:

Subscribers
Thats right, you and me. It might not be long before a simple $10 per month fee is passed on to us to keep and/or upgrade our accounts. Another rumor is some sort of pay-per-follower system is put in place. If this happens, Twitter stands to make a lot of money but also lose a lot of subscribers and third-party developers. This would probably be the easiest model, but not the most beneficial and definitely not the most popular.

Advertisers
This is also known as going the way of the Facebook. Sure, your third-party Twitter app on your phone features ads, but Twitter doesn’t get paid for those at all. It is quite possible that Twitter will start putting ads inside of your tweets. Think about it, most people don’t use Twitter.com to post updates anymore, adspace there would be almost useless. Instead, you may be limited to 110 characters, leaving 30 characters for sponsors space. This option will probably make more money for Twitter and be much more popular with users, but will require a hefty backend.

Google
This is what I would do if I were in charge, sell out and walk away. Who would buy such a thing? Well, Google of course. The search engine giant has already said they want to take over the world and Twitter represents a market they have yet to tap effectively: personal SMS. If this happens, either one or a combination of both of the above options may be put in place.

It is just a matter of time before Twitter as we know it goes away. But there is no reason to panic, I am sure the next big social networking and micro-blogging tool is already being invented by some smart MIT grad student and we will have a few years of using his tool for free before he gets smart too.

1. App Explosion – Mobile phone apps are the new thing. In 2009, we saw the keyboard camera phone become a thing of the past and the “Zach Morris” brick phone enter the Smithsonian. Web designers are branching out into development of these apps and more and more businesses are figuring out that increased accessibility for their consumer base means making a mobile app available. The app trend has almost completely skipped over mobile web development as well, making the technology  almost unnecessary. In 2010, watch as the number of available apps skyrockets and start the conversation for your organization’s own mobile app strategy.

2. Burning Paper – If you have a pet hamster, you had better start looking for something else to line his cage with because 2010 will see more print newspapers biting the dust. Weekend coupons and exclusive content used to be their saving grace, but vendors are making their coupons available online and studies have shown that readers will not pay for exclusive content. The next year could be the year of decline or reinvention for the local and national paper as many have already made plans to go digital.

3. Facebook Flames Out – Gasp! Thats right, I’m calling it. The rise of annoying games, ads, and old people on Facebook means that the user base that made it big (20-30 year old hipsters) will leave and find something new. Make no mistake, it will still be around in a year, it just won’t be what it is today. My prediction: in five year it will be completely gone. Now might be a good time to look into a new social network platform for your church community or organization.

4. Bloggers Burst – Blogs are just getting easier to use and better to look at which means more bad news for traditional media outlets. Already, the major networks are featuring “blog crawling” sections of their programming, a strategy that has kept their audience close and their enemies closer.If your organization doesn’t have at least a blog, do so now.

5. Android Blasts Off – Those folks at Google are sure smart. This is just a hunch, but I think you will see or at least hear rumors of a desktop version of the Android OS. Currently, Android is a mobile phone OS for “Google phones” but the market is ripe for challenge to be sent the way of Windows 7 and Mac OSX. I’m just sayin’.

6. Cyberwars Sizzle – In the next year, we will see more attacks like the recent one from the Iranian Cyberarmy on Twitter. Ever world leader knows that the next battlefield is the digital one and the US is already recruiting heavily for it.

7. Microblog Sparks Up – Twitter is the craze right now, but it won’t be long before another microblogging platform comes along and threatens to be the new thing. I’m not saying that Twitter we be dead in 2010, hardly; I am saying that whatever will replace it will be started in 2010.

So there it is. Have a great 2010 and I will see you back here in a year so we can all either have a good laugh at my expense or we can celebrate my new title of “Prophet.”

Like any objective writer I must confess my own apathy towards Flash. I resisted it when it was big in the early 2000′s and never put time into learning it. I would be the first to sign the death certificate if Flash had kicked the bucket. Unfortunately for my bias, its simply not the case. Flash technology is and will most likely always be a part of the web. Its not dead, maybe just in a midlife crisis. Flash web designers are in hibernation right now making cheesy site templates and shiny nav menus while they try to figure out what the next big thing is for their future. But it is hardly dead.

Back up a sec, what is Flash?
Let me explain. Web browsers read and interpret code and the result is what you see. Occasionally, that code will reference elements that aren’t code-based like images, video, and Flash applications. Flash is a way of creating design that is not native to the web, but an element of it. Flash is presentation, HTML/CSS is information. In the first part of the decade, it was not uncommon to see companies pay hipster design firms big money to create spiffy, entirely Flash websites. During that time, not all browsers and computers supported the Adobe Flash player and even fewer updated regularly. On top of that, the average internet user’s connection was too slow to make a valuable experience.

But in 2010, all that has changed. Almost all computers connected to the internet are running the most recent Flash update and the average internet speed can handle almost anything a Flash application could offer without taking away from the user experience. So why are fully Flash sites disappearing?

Phones, baby
If you have an iPhone or any smart phone with a web browser, you may have experienced an update error when visiting a website with Flash elements or trying to watch videos via the browser window. That is because until very recently, no smart phone web browser supported Flash. The new Android phones are the first to handle it but are having issues, and the iPhone has yet to catch up but PalmPre, Windows Mobile, Symbian, and Blackberry still no dice.  Adding fuel to this fire is the fact that mobile web browsing exploded in terms of usage this last year and more people are using their phones to browse than ever before. Unless the technology quickly adapts to accommodate Flash on phones, don’t expect Flash websites to make a strong comeback.

In a niche
Make no mistake about it, Flash is being used all over the web. When you watch that the latest episode of Heroes on Hulu, you are watching a video converted to Flash. When you try to shoot the mouse with your cursor in that sucker bait banner ad, you are interacting with a Flash website. And when you are visiting a site that uses a non-web standard font all over, you are seeing a Flash font component. Flash is not dead, it is has simply become a niche. Reverting back to the analogy of American culture, Flash is living out a very common cycle. Take metal music. It made its biggest splash in the early-80′s and then settled down into its niche market. It will never go away, but it will never stand out in the music scene like it did for a few years during the Reagan Administration. Flash has had its big burst, now it is settling in.

User experience
As the internet matures, we are realizing what the important things are. Basically, user experience dominates. You create a website to sell something or to move people and if the average user has a hard time finding and using your site, then you lose big points.  I can’t explain it, but Flash websites are typically all over the place and the navigation options can be clumsy or cheesy but never in between. Adding to this point, Flash sites that are viewed in browsers with atypical display settings look like a 3D movie without the glasses. More than once, a Flash site has made me sea sick. I am no user experience engineer, but I’m pretty sure motion sickness is not a goal of a website owner.

So what?
To answer the title, Flash is not dead, but Flash websites are. As a leader of an organization looking for a cheap web option, I would suggest looking to a cheap CMS or making budget room to hire a designer that will think through this stuff for you. The technology has created a market where a great looking, effective website is more affordable than ever.

Speckboy just posted 40 fresh WordPress themes. These will make you give up on paying for premiums for a while. Enjoy.

Below is my question and Kem’s answer, if you are in a similar position as I am at your church, I hope you find it as helpful as I have.

Shrink : In the past, we have had NO communication strategy in place at my church. Part of my job is to create one and implement it. In your experience, what is the best way to successfully walk the ministry leaders and staff through this transition without becoming a dictator of communication?

Kem Meyer : If you recognize the benefits of a centralized communication strategy, you’re not going to go very far implementing it without getting others on board. I remember my early lobbying efforts. They fell short of the finish line. I started and stopped with “we need this!” I was missing the most important part; the “here’s why it’s a good thing and how it could work.” Delivering the first part without the second is like a hit and run.

I commonly get emails from people in the early stages of the process asking for advice how to get buy-in. They all sound like this: “We need to do this. But, it will only work with the support of senior management and buy-in from the rest of the staff.” And, that’s where they stop. They fall short the same place I did when I made my first few pitches.

Here’s some tips for being an effective advocate for the cause (which leads to buy-in from everyone):

1. Give them something to champion. Go to your boss with proposed solutions; not just the problem. Let them ask questions, identify gaps and make suggestions for edits to your proposal before anything is presented to others.
2. Tell a story. Can you share examples of real-life consequences that have resulted from a decentralized strategy (e.g., bad dates, bad directions, duplication of efforts, conflicting content, poor member care, etc.)? If you can’t communicate where the real pain is and how it affects a variety of audiences (internal and external), it will be hard to sell the need for relief.
3. Ask about structure. Suggest starting with a centralized calendar and budget. Instead of independent calendars and budgets competing against each other, what better way to encourage the “we’re one team” mindset than with time and money? What does that look like?
4. Talk about process. Try to draft a process that streamlines the flow of all information (e.g., database, print, platform, online, etc.), touching key stakeholders along the way. A simple outline is a good place to start. It doesn’t have to be complicated. You can use technology or paper; just map out the roads you picture the information traffic using to go from point A to B. Attempt to reduce and consolidate multiple entry points into one place. What does every department share in common? For us, it was EventU. Every ministry had to reserve facility and calendar space here. So, instead of adding another layer to the work people were already doing, we started using this as the place to capture all the information for every activity (e.g., date, place, promotions, technical support, etc.) and then it was routed to the appropriate stakeholders.
5. Roll it out slow. Introduce one item of change and a timeline for the next couple of steps. Transitions will go smoother when everyone knows when and where the change is happening. Keep it simple. Allow room for questions. There’s a chance you may have missed something.

As I type, I am in the middle of a direct mail project at my church. I am waiting for a call back from my mailing vendor to hear whether or not there will be problem with our USPS permit and our recent name change. This is not the first direct mail campaign I have managed and I have questions about its ineffectiveness. Does it work? If it does, what is the return? In gross terms, is it worth the investment for a non-profit?

Direct mail campaigns in the local church usually start with a big idea. They are timed to maximize natural peaks in community interest in attending church and involve mailing a flier, postcard, or brochure, to massive numbers of addresses from a pre-purchased mail list. Every Easter, Fall, and Christmas, the hippest churches in any given suburb engage in what can best compared to Clark Griswold trying to outdo his neighbors with his own psycho Christmas light display. I can just imagine the conversations that would happen in the mailbox between the mailers themselves, if they could talk:

“Nice cover art, did a 6 year old color that?”

“Shut up. At least I’m original, Mr. I Didn’t Get the Memo that all Variations of ‘Got Milk?’ Have Been Used a Thousand Times Before!”

“Hey guys! Knock it off already! I bet you both are going in the trash the second she sees you. I, on the other hand, am a POSTCARD. I am gonna land some prime refrigerator space. Booyah!”

The benefit of direct mail is obvious and tends carry this time-honored tradition in the modern American suburban church. With direct mail, you can specifically target your audience with direct mail by purchasing mail lists that, for example, include all homes with young children at home. But is this benefit worth the ever-growing expense of direct mail?

The Cost
Naturally, the cost depends on the quantity of bulk mail being sent. Since most churches can not afford first-class mail rates, the cost is anywhere from 5 cents to 10 cents per piece to mail. The printing is more and obviously depends on colors, paper type, finishing, etc. A church who wants to hit 50,000 homes with a tri-fold, full-color piece can expect to pay about $10,000 for the printing, $5,500 for the mailhouse fees, and $4,500 for the postage, totaling $20,000. This is not including if they have to hire a graphic designer to put it together or not. Some companies cater to small churches who have no designers on staff and do package deals for slightly cheaper.

Now for the crude facts. The average return on church direct mail is one half of one percent (.005). Basically, if you mail 50, 000 pieces you can expect around 250 families to respond. At $20,000, the church is basically paying each family $80 to come to church one time.

But there is also the exposure that goes unmeasured and in reality, there is no fool-proof way to gauge the effectiveness of a mail piece. When it comes to cost/benefit discussion of a direct mail campaign for a church, the conversation usually awkwardly tapers off when it gets to the question of what to do once the one half of one percent arrive on campus. That is another post for another time.

The Wrong Question
Like anything, a direct mailer used all by itself as an end-all, is a waste. Church statistics and human common sense tell us that ultimately, people will come and become part of a community of Christ followers because a friend invited them. The question of direct mail or not, is the wrong question. Instead, more time should be spent thinking about and planning an effective communication strategy that involves equipping and vision casting to the biggest, most inexpensive resource any church already has: itself. Corporate America spends billions of dollars trying to figure out how to tap into and create buy-in from its customers and Average Joes. They know that a polished ad with an actress playing a soccer mom selling dish soap is not nearly as effective as a real soccer mom hearing from her friend about the dish soap and how it is on sale right now. The ad is just to create brand recognition and message.

Take Verizon and Subway. The two most annoying ad campaigns on earth right now that are working. Both companies have managed to get regular people, some not even their customers, literally singing and using their tagline in everyday conversation. How many times have you said, “Can you hear me now?” while on the phone and got a chuckle from it? Or if I were to say FIVE DOLLARS. Your mind right now just started singing the hideous, Five Dollar Footlong Song. Its nothing new, its called word of mouth and it is the Mona Lisa of all who understand viral marketing.

Where churches sometimes fail, is not in making a bad mailer that has the wrong info or is not flashy enough. Churches fail by jumping to the mailer project without giving second thought to the one thing they have that corporations would die for: a sold-out, loyal customer base waiting for marching orders… aka the church. The Church has an added bonus that all members have  in common: personal experience with the life-giving power of the resurrection of Christ. The Gospel literally means “good news.” When Jesus conquered death, the largest, most successful marketing campaign was launched, it has managed to last 2,000 years. It began with a simple statement, “Go into all the world and tell them what I have done for it.” This is a rough generalization and an uneasy comparison, but a much easier project to put a local community of believers on is, “Tell your friends and neighbors about what’s going on here in August.” As a church leader, your job is to equip them with this Not-As-Great Commission.

Our most recent mailer hanging out at the local Starbucks.

The Tools
With information almost traveling at the speed of light these days, this type of marketing for churches is even easier. Here are some ways churches can equip their body for an effective, grassroots, viral marketing campaign:

1. All about the E. This is not the 90’s and people actually ARE using the web nowadays. The most recent studies show that the majority of people under 55 use the Internet more than the TV each day. I just told a newspaper telemarketer that I didn’t want to pay for their paper because I read online for free everyday and that doesn’t take up space in my trash can. Churches can create season-specific micro-sites, invite-a-friend email embeds, one-click info sharing on their website, Twitter updates, and a Facebook page or group to spread the news. Its easy and non-confrontational for the inviter and invitee.
2. Phone power. Text messaging is incredibly viral and cheap these days. Several major carriers have already phased out per text billing on their plans and most people who text do it for free as part of their plan. At MISSION, we use a system called MobiMark where users can subscribe for free by texting “M68″ to 411247 and regular news sent to their phone. This has proven to be incredibly effective. Picture two women on a play date with their kids. As they talk, Mom A gets a text from her church that says “Tell all your friends about TwoIgnite, the new marriage series starting this week at MISSION.” Mom A tells Mom B about it and a conversation starts about the ministry. Hopefully, Mom B will bring her family ad become part of what God is doing at church. For smaller churches with smaller budgets, Twitter can accomplish the same thing.
3. Paperboy. It never hurts to print something. With all the other tools out there and the cost of printing, paper should be used in very targeted way. If your church does not decided to do a mailer, another cheap option is printing invites to give to the church body to pass out. The invite is basically a mailer that is hand-delivered by a friend instead of by a postman. The nice thing about printed invites is that they can be put on local bulletin boards, public info kiosks, and left in restaurants. I always put them on the community board at my local Starbucks.

I hope this helps. As my church grows and as I grow with it, the best thing I can do in my role is to discover what communication venues my church and my community respond to best. Sometimes there is leading on my part to more effective forms, but it should never be forced. In the same way, ultimately every church is different and every community has a unique demographic. A mailer may have great success in one area and be a disaster in another area. The difference being the  community audience, not the mailer. The best thing a church can do is know its neighbors and know how to talk to them. Sometimes this knowledge takes time and costs money.

The almost free and time-tested and proven method is word of mouth. This modern age has not made word of mouth obsolete but easier. A church who is effectively communicating internally should have no problem marketing externally, even with out direct mail.

Now, print this article off and mail it 50,000 of your neighbors. Thanks.